The Future Today Institute's forecasting model relies on quantitative and qualitative data. Their model alternates between flared and focused thinking This includes: indentifying very early stage fringe research, focusing on patterns, interrogating trend candidates, calculating a trend's trajectory, writing scenarios and finally pressure-testing strategies and recommendations.
Step 1: The Fringe
Step 2: CIPHER
Step 3: Ask the right questions
Step 4: Calculate the ETA
Step 5: Write scenarios
Step 6: Pressure-test the future
First, they identify what they call "unusual suspects" at the fringe. From there, we uncover hidden patterns, connecting experimentation at the fringe to our fundamental human needs and desires. The patterns reveal a possible trend, one that will then need to be investigated, interrogated, and proven. Next, they calculate the trend's ETA and direction: Where is it heading, how quickly, and with what momentum? However, identifying a trend isn't enough. They must then develop probable, plausible, and possible scenarios in order to create a salient strategy for use by stakeholders in the present. There is one final step: pressure-testing the strategy against the trend to make sure any planned actions are the right ones. The Institute's forecasting model's six steps require them to alternate between hyper-creative "flaring" (thinking very broadly), and focusing down to very practical, tangible implications. If you look closely, you'll see that it's a curvy funnel—flaring and focusing as they move along from steps one to six.
